Saturday, May 28, 2011

Buying physical silver for long term holding

While there are many ways of investing in silver, I still prefer buying physical silver.\

Today is one of those days when I really feel comforted in my investment choice.

I had tea with my friends just now.

One of them mentioned that she had already spent more than a thousand dollars in buying shoes and bags, and that was even before the Great Singapore Sale started.

Another friend had spent a few thousand dollars on facial and skin care package, and products.

While they were having remorse at their spending habit, at the same time, they were excited at the chance to spend money again at Great Singapore Sale.

I admitted that I had spent a few thousand dollars recently, on buying physical silver.

My friends exclaimed that my expenditure was different.  It was investment, not spending.

I retorted that I needed to spend to invest.

The net result is the same: we are all broke for the time being.

Since I used the dollar cost averaging method for buying physical silver, I have to wait until I have more savings before buying again.

The difference between spending on investment, and spending on consumer products, is that my silver bullions have resale value.

Even if the price of this precious metal falls, I can still sell at a loss if I need money.  The loss is not as great as selling away used bags and shoes.

The advantage of buying physical silver is that I can sell at a premium, since I have bought at a premium over spot rate.

That means the premium over spot rate does not reduce my capital gain, since I can pass down to the next buyer.

If the price increases substantially, I can even make a profit over the premium over spot rate for physical product.

For example, the current ongoing rate for silver bar in Singapore is 20% premium over spot rate.

This is to account for the shipping cost, the insurance cost, the premium over spot by the mint, and 7% goods and services tax that we have to pay for shipping the new products from overseas.

That means at the current rate of US$37.96 per Troy ounce of silver, I need to pay US$455 for a 10 oz bar.

If I buy at this rate, and I sell at a time when the spot rate is US$50, my selling price will be US$600 for a 10 oz bar.

That means a net profit of US$145.

The tricky part is the declining value of USD.

If the currency in my country appreciates by 10%, my overall profit decreases by 10%.

That is the risk of buying physical silver for non-US residents.

However, it is still better than opening a silver saving account, and have the administrative cost deducted from my account.

If you are interested in holding silver for long term, buying physical silver is still the best.

You will have less money for consumer items too.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

We buy gold and silver out of fear

We buy gold and silver when we are fearful.

The recent buying spree is due to the fear of crisis in Europe.

It seems that many countries in Europe are on the brink of bankruptcy.

United States is not any better in term of financial management, but its debt problem has not reached a crisis yet.

The situation in Greek is very worrying.

It is not just a financial problem anymore.  The sovereign debt increases the possibility of a major political crisis.

If the people revolt, and the government in Greek refuses to hold an early election, Greek could potentially become the next Libya.

The uncertainty is weighing down Euro.

Despite the fact that Euro is down, and US dollar strengthens, the price of gold and silver increases.

In many instances, the price of gold and silver heads in different direction with the US dollar.

In most cases, when US dollars decline in value, the price of precious metals goes up.

In this case of Eurozone crisis, the precious metals get more expensive while the US dollar strengthens.

Why do we buy gold and silver?

The reason is quite simple.

Some of us buy gold and silver because we can trust in physical things we can see and hold.

We know that paper assets are just paper assets.  The currencies in many countries are not backed by any asset at all.

These are just fiat currencies.  We can even compare them with monopoly money.

The governments can further devalue the currencies by printing more and more, and the value, that means the actual purchasing power, of current stocks declines.

For some people, they do not believe that gold and silver are any better than other forms of investments.

However, they can see the wisdom of investing for gains.

When the bull run starts, and we buy gold and silver at the start of the bull run, we stand to gain when we sell before the next crash.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Genting giving out free rooms again

For the past two years, I have enjoyed going to Genting a few times a year.

The reason is that Genting keeps on giving out free rooms.  The entitlement is usually for a limited period, from  a month to two months.

The last time I received the free rooms offer was in March.  Now I get this email about free rooms offer again.

Sunday, May 22, 2011

UOB silver saving account

It seems that UOB silver saving account is the only one available in Singapore.

While this method allows savers to gain from the silver price without holding physical silver, there are some disadvantages to this silver saving account.

Let us look at the feature of UOB silver saving account in Singapore.

The minimum transaction is 10 ounce of silver each time.

With the current silver price of US$35 per troy ounce, 10 ounce of silver will mean more than US$350 per transaction.  The UOB bank sell rate is at S$44.01 per ounce.

That means the minimum to open this account is $440.10.

The maximum transaction limit is at 500 ounces.

There is no Goods and Services Tax for buying silver in the form of silver saving account.

The buyer does not have to worry about the storage of silver bars or silver coins.

If the buyer uses the dollar cost averaging method to build up his asset, silver saving account is definitely a good way.

However, there are many disadvantages to this scheme.

For one thing, there is a difference between bank’s buying price and selling price.

At the moment, when UOB bank sells you at S$44.01 per ounce, it buys back at the rate of S$42.99.  That is a 2% difference.

While it does not seem much difference in a single oz, imagine you have 500 ounces.  The difference in absolute dollar is great.

On top of that, there is an administrative fee.

The administrative fee is 0.2 ounce per month.

If the price stays the same throughout, that means you pay S$8.80 per month for administrative fee.  The minimum annual administrative fee is $105.60.

If the quantity changes due to buying or selling, the administrative charge is 0.2 ounce per month or 0.375% per annum based on the highest balance per month.

That means if you have 500 oz, and the price stays constant, you need to pay $165 in administrative fee.

This fee is further subjected to GST of 7%.

There is an administrative charge of $30 for closure of silver saving account within six months.

Another disadvantage is the fact that trading needs to do over the counter.

If you do not happen to live near the UOB branch, and do not visit the bank during operating hours, trading poses a difficulty.

Most people buy and sell frequently to lock in the profits.

While the volatility of silver makes it worthwhile to trade frequently, the problem is that UOB is the only bank offers silver saving account.

If there is at least one competitive bank offering the same product, the administrative charge will be lower.

Let us hope that foreign banks can fill in the vacuum.

Friday, May 20, 2011

Silver correction is a good thing

Silver correction is a very good thing for all consumers around the world.

While speculators suffer huge loss when silver price dropped from $50 per Troy ounce to the current $35 per Troy ounce, others benefit.

For one thing, silver correction leads to a price correction in many commodities, such as sugar, wheat, palm oil and other food commodities.

The current price of silver and food commodities is a better reflection of the actual demand and supply.
Silver is an industrial commodity.

It is used in nearly all electronic devices.

It is not always a speculator’s tool.

We should thank the executives in CME who see the need to burst the bubble in silver price.  They are the ones who take steps to change margin requirements several times in a week.

Without their foresight, the speculators will push up the price of commodities higher, and lead directly to higher food price around the world.

Imagine the plight of the poor families who work 12 hours a day just to eat one meal a day.

The world is a really small place.

It is hard for the poor people in Africa, Asia and other parts of the world to understand how the silver correction benefits them.

The link from silver correction to cheaper food is not apparent until it happens.

What about the investors?

Is silver correction a good thing?

Yes, it is.

The speculators are fools who dare to buy when silver price was $50 per Troy ounce.  In fact, they borrow money to make huge purchases.

Investors, especially experienced investors, stayed on the side line, and watch.

They were waiting for silver correction which was due.

It did not matter whether you used technical analysis method or plain commonsense, the wise ones know that what goes up must come down.

Is silver a good buy at $35?

It is good enough, if the price could drop to $30, that will be better.

The world of speculators never learn from mistakes.

They will return to send the price of silver higher and higher, until the next bubble burst.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

When the price of silver per ounce was $50

When the price of silver per ounce was $50, you would have thought that nobody dare to buy.

However, the fact is that people were rushing to snap up silver at such high price.

The craze in the commodity market was alarming enough that CME kept on changing margin requirement.

CME Group is the owner of the future exchange NYMEX.

The changes in margin requirement means that the minimum trading requirement is $21,600.

If you have this much money, you have just met the minimum requirement to trade.

This is an increase of 84% in just two weeks.

The drastic action caught many small investors and speculators by surprise.

They never expected it.

They had to sell off their holdings.

The massive force sale forced the price of silver per ounce to drop from $50 to $33 in a matter of days.

The funny thing is that people all over the world, including those not involved in commodity trading, were willing to pay when the price of silver per ounce was $50.

They bought silver bars.  They bought silver coins. They invest in silver saving accounts with the banks.  They invest in silver Exchange Traded Fund.

What happen when the price of silver per ounce dropped to $33?

Since that is a deep discount, you would have thought that people were rushing to buy more.

The reality is that nobody dared to buy when the price of silver per ounce dropped to $33.

Why is that?

The only reason is the psychological makeup of most people.

When price is high, they fear that the escalating price will push the commodity out of their reach.  That is why they join the crowd to push the price even higher.

When price is low, they fear that the price will go lower, so they refuse to buy.

That is despite the fact that both fundamental and technical analysts sound the warning about the pending silver price correction!

The analysts and many experienced investors already warn that buying at $45 or even $50 is not wise.  If you want to buy when price is high, just buy a bit.

However, most people do not listen.

They not only use all their money, they use the bank’s money as well.

Will the price of silver per ounce go above $50?

Yes, it will.  It is just a matter of time.

If you have the patience to wait for a year or two, you can buy physical silver in the form of silver coins or silver bars, and wait for the price to go up.

When is the best time to buy?

Anytime is the best time to buy, provided you spread out your money.

Even if you bought a bar when the spot rate was $50, you could have bought another bar when the price of silver per ounce was $33.

That brings the average price of the silver bars to $41.50 per Troy ounce.

Saturday, May 14, 2011

Gold and silver investments

Gold and silver investments have existed for thousands of years.

Even in developing countries, where most people do not know how to read and write, gold and silver investments exist.

Way back when Singapore was not even a country, the people were mainly immigrants from China, India and other countries.

Those poor peasants knew the value of gold and silver investments.

They did not know how to speculate.  They only knew about long term holdings.

They bought gold and silver jewelries for the future generation.

Those of us who inherited gold coins, silver coins, gold bars, silver jewelries, and other physical items are very grateful for the wisdom of our ancestors.

In those days, it did not take much knowledge to kick start gold and silver investments.

They just entered the goldsmith shop and bought the items.

They would then passed down to the children, and grandchildren.

Gold and silver investments are for everyone.

The difference between present generation and the past generation is that of perspective.

Present generation has no patience for holding an asset for many years.  They do not think about passing anything down to the future generation.

In this sense, the volatility of gold and silver prices is good for them.

The huge swing of silver price is extremely good for short term trader.

Imagine buying silver at the end of January, when silver was just $26, and sold it when silver was $49.

When silver crash occurred, the trader bought silver at $34, and sold it when the price was $39.

The next silver crash bought the price down to $32.

The volatility of silver price promises great trading experience, provided you have the money and the gut for it.

Some investors, especially new investors to the precious metals market, are scared off by the huge swing.

What about long term investors?

What if you want a long term perspective in gold and silver investments?

The volatility provides buying opportunities.

You can wait for a week, a month or a quarter for the next silver and gold crash before making your purchase.

As long as you are willing to wait, and you have the money for it, you can enter market at the right time.

Before you enter market, it is important to read a few forum posts.

You need to have a feel about the market sentiment.

Long term investors felt that the price of silver was high at $40, and they had voiced out the concern about the spectacular upswing in silver price.

Most of them held a wait and see attitude.

They were not buying nor selling.

If you had felt the sentiment among the investors, you would not have sunk all your money into the gold and silver investments at that time.

This is a data chart from Kitco.  You can see the rise and fall of silver in a matter of days.

Since the accumulative average price is $34.47, you would have gain if you bought at or below this price.

Sunday, May 8, 2011

Will Straits Times Index improve?

Now that the Singapore General Election 2011 is over, I hope that the Straits Times Index will improve.

The past week was a nerve wrecking week for all investors and speculators in the Singapore stock market.

The Straits Times Index kept on dropping amidst uncertainty of the political stability.

All signs pointed to the unhappiness of the people over the ruling political party, People’s Action Party.

Now that People’s Action Party has won 81 seats out of 87 seats, even though the overall support is just 60% of the voting population, the nerve shattering week has ended.

Everyone in the world has taken the political stability of the Singapore government for granted.  That includes the People’s Action Party as well.

It thought that every Singaporean will support the People’s Action Party, even though the people have been voicing their unhappiness for a long time.

It is time for reality to sink in.

The ruling party has five years’ time to regain the trust that it has lost.

On a happier note, the ruling party will not suffer the humiliation that the rulers in Middle East are facing.

The voice of the people, through the General Election 2011, is loud and clear.

The ruling party has to relearn the art of listening to the people, instead of just brushing the complaints aside.

Singapore General Election 2011 is a awakening call for People’s Action Party, almost like a baptism by fire.

However, the caliber of the selected parliamentary members from People’s Action Party is high, except for the Tin Pei Ling and Mah Bow Tan.

Tin Pei Ling does not even know how to defend her reputation convincingly, how can she represent all the people in the ward?

Compared her to the youngest candidate in the election - Nicole Seah, Tin Pei Ling is a complete failure.

Nicole Seah has proven her political and emotion maturity, even though she is just 24 years old.

I wonder how People’s Action Party can miss out talents like Nicole Seah.  Something is obviously wrong with its selection process.

Mah Bow Tan is one of the reasons for the People’s Action Party to lose the support of so many voters.

If he had waken up earlier, and realized how high the public housing is, instead of telling the people that housing is still affordable, the ruling party will not lose so many votes.

Hopefully, People’s Action Party can find better candidates than Tin Pei Ling.

Otherwise, it is going to lose heavily in the next election.

The Straits Times Index will definitely sink like a stone if opposition parties win more than 50% of the parliamentary seats.

Now that the election is over, and the result is out, the Straits Times Index should rise in the coming week.

The foreign investors can feel safe for investing in Singapore, at least for the foreseeable five years.

Will Straits Times Index improve?  If yes, how high can Straits Times Index go?  

I eagerly wait for the opening of the stock market on Monday

Friday, May 6, 2011

Best time to buy silver bullion bars?

If you have been following the volatile silver price for the past month, you would have realized how hard it is to find a best time to buy silver bullion bars.

Just when the price dropped 5% in a single day, and you started to have the idea of buying silver bullion bars, the price rebound.

That happened near the end of April.

In the recent major silver crash in May, the price dropped to $34 after a few days of drastic sell off.

Just when you are thinking about the best time to buy, the price rebounds.

The current price is $35.97.

It is extremely hard to catch the best time, almost an impossible task.

I failed to catch the lowest possible price, since many sellers adjust the price continuously.

Most sellers are selling at a fixed rate over spot price.

With the volatility in silver price, the websites keep on refreshing the listed price.

A day hesitation means you will miss out the buying opportunity, or it may mean you save heartache of buying at a higher price.

During the past few days, I have checked the price of silver bullion bars from Kitco, APMEX and Scottsdale Silver.

I will not consider buying from Kitco, since the shipping cost is too high.  The insurance cost is a separate cost.

I want to buy from APMEX, but they do not accept Paypal or credit card for international buyer.

Since I have funds in Paypal from various sources of online activities, I prefer to pay from Paypal.

A few hours of hesitation resulted in price revision from Scottsdale Silver.

Scottsdale Silver has the lowest shipping cost of all.  If you are staying in the United States, you can get free shipping if you buy the silver bullion bars from the free shipping section.

Even for international buyers, the shipping rate is extremely low.

One of the best places for buying silver bullion bars is Tulving.  Too bad the minimum order means a cost of more than $20,000.

I cannot afford this kind of money for buying silver bullion bars.

The problem of buying from Tulving is that they do not ship overseas.  They can ship only to the account at the Depository in United States.

It is not for small investor like me!

What is the best time to buy silver bullion bars?

You can say that no time is the best time or all time is the best time.

Regardless of when you buy, you can never buy at the absolute low price.  You can also never sell at the absolute high price.

Thursday, May 5, 2011

Factors causing silver price crash

Silver crash has happened.
What cause silver price crash?
1.  Margin requirement
CME keeps on changing the margin requirement.
Since many traders and speculators are using margin, a change in margin requirement means they have to put in more cash upfront or borrow less money to play the silver market.
While changing margin requirement is nothing shocking, CME announcement is causing a ripple because this is the fourth time so far.
2.  Strengthening of US dollar
Since gold and silver move in opposite direction to the movement in US dollar, the strengthening of US dollar means that silver and gold will get cheaper.
3.  Crude oil is lower
Crude oil, gold and silver belong to the commodity market.
A movement in the price of one commodity easily affects the other commodity.
Since crude oil has led the increase in price for gold and silver, the lower price of crude oil brings the price of gold and silver lower.
4.  Sentiment
The technical analysts and many investors feel that gold and silver are long overdue for major bull market correction.
Since the market sentiment is so negative, and many people sell off early to lock in profits, the massive sell-off triggers a silver crash.
5.  Political pressure
The German politicians put pressure on Portugal to sell off its gold reserve.
If Portugal starts to dump its more than 300 tons of gold into the open market, the price of gold will sink like stone.
A report like this certainly spooks investors into a selling mood.

What is next?
The price of gold and silver is dependent on macroeconomic factors.
If a major unrest happens in certain parts of the world, the price will spike again.
If the US dollar keeps on strengthening, the silver crash will continue.

The silver crash provides buying opportunities for us to load up on silver.
If you are afraid of sinking too much money on silver bars or silver coins, you can use the dollar cost averaging method to buy.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Problem with buying physical silver

There are many ways of investing in silver.

One of the best way is to buy physical silver.

Now that the silver price per ounce is at a 3 weeks low, it is time to consider buying physical silver again.

Silver seems to hover between $40 and $50 in the short term.

It is hard to reach beyond $50, which is a strong psychological barrier.

It seems that whenever the price goes above $49, everyone starts to fear a bubble in the market.

The fear of the investors and speculators create a bull market correction.

The price can fall as much as $5 in a day.

The current price of $41 is near the lower psychological barrier.

If it goes below $40, the confidence of the investors is shattered as well.

However, buying physical silver has its own sets of problems.

The first of all is where to buy physical silver?

You can buy silver bullions or silver coins.

While the spot rate is known to everyone, the problem is that silver bullions and silver coins sell at a premium over spot rate.

Someone has recommended Tulving.

This website has the lowest spot rate for silver bars.  However, the minimum purchase of 500 ounces means that it is out of reach for small investors.

Not everyone can part with more than $20,000!

If you have the money on hand, and like to invest in physical silver, Tulving is definitely the best place for us.

For the rest of us, websites such as Scottsdale Silver, Kitco, APMEX and Gainesville Coins are better for us.

While some websites, such as Kitco, have seemingly low premium over spot, the shipping and insurance cost are killing!

Scottsdale Silver has very high premium over spot, but the shipping cost is the cheapest of them all.

Some websites do not even sell to international buyers, that is why our choices are rather limited.

If you are interested in collecting silver coins, the choices widen.

There are many websites that sell only coins.

The best of them all is the website of the US Mint.