Thursday, July 28, 2011

Investing in gold and silver or stock market

The gold and silver market seems to head in the opposite direction from the Singapore stock market most of the time.

When gold and silver price per ounce is heading north, the Singapore stock market either stays stagnant or heads south.

This fact presents an interesting investment choice, as in investing in gold and silver or Singapore stock market.

If I really want to focus, I would need a substantial capital for day trade.

Investing in gold and silver for the short term is easier through ETF.

Singapore stock market has gold ETF, but no silver ETF.

The best is to open an account with New York Stock Exchange for the purpose of trading Silver ETF.

There are a lot of things to read and absorb if investing becomes a full time passion.

For example, gold and silver prices are very sensitive to major events in the world, especially those that will threaten the economy of the world.

Once US announces it wants to print more money to devalue the currency, you will see gold and silver hit new high.

Singapore stock market will likely go into a crash again.

The investors are more likely to pull out from equities into commodities.

Theoretically, it makes sense to buy stocks when everyone pulls out, and sell gold and silver when everyone is buying.

However, not many people have the guts to do so.

When they see the Singapore stock market crashes, they are worried about more trouble ahead.  NOL is one prime example.

My friend bought at the time when the price was $1.56, thinking that the price was low enough.  Unfortunately it has dropped a lot since then.

While NOL is a good company, and is making use of the recession for expansion, most investors do not hold such a long term view.

On the other hand, many people are investing in gold and silver when the prices are very high, hoping for even higher price.

Looking at the way US government is printing money, there is little doubt that gold and silver prices are still a long way from the peak.

Nobody knows how high the price will be.  Nobody knows how low the stock market will be too.

The only known factor is how much money you have for investment.

No point having just a hundred dollars and hope to make a million dollars.  If you have a hundred dollars, the most you can buy is two ounces of silver bars.  That is about it.

Monday, July 25, 2011

Gold coins investment

A friend called recently.

He inherited some gold coins, and he was searching for information about their worth.

One particular gold coin is the 1905 Liberty Head American Eagle Gold Coin.

That was not so valuable when his grandfather bought it.  However, now that gold price has hit $1600 per ounce, that 1905 Liberty Head American Eagle Gold Coin is very valuable.

While I do not know much about gold coins, I know that one of the most popular coins in the world is the American Eagle series of gold and silver coins.

My friend was very ignorant when it comes to gold coins investment, even though he had inherited such a valuable collection, and he had bought many gold coins during his working years.

He thought that the 1905 Liberty Head American Eagle Gold Coin was to commemorate the independence of the United States.

I nearly fainted from such assumption.

United States has gained independence so long ago.  If there were such gold coins to commemorate the event, that gold coin would have worth a fortune.

He also thought that the Liberty Head stand for a queen.

“Since when has a queen ruled over United States?”  I screamed into the phone.

This shows that everyone can start a gold coins investment.

There is no special knowledge needed.

Since gold coins investment runs in his family, from grandfather to him, it follows that everyone can start a tradition in his family.

The best is to stick to American Eagle gold coins.  If you buy one coin every day, you would have a valuable collection to hand over to the next generation.

If gold coins investment is too expensive for you, you can start by buying silver coins.

While the price of silver is very high compared to two years ago, the price is still affordable.

You can start a silver coin investment by buying American Silver Eagle coin series.

It does not matter that you do not stay in America.

This American Eagle Gold coin or Silver coin is the favorite of all collectors.  You can find it in the coin shops in any country, and you can sell it anytime you want.

There is no lack of collector’s interest in this series.

Friday, July 22, 2011

Phyllodes Tumor

I do not know whether to laugh or to cry when the doctor mentions that my breast lump is likely to be a phyllodes tumor.

Good news is that phyllodes tumor is very unlikely to be cancerous.  Bad news is that phyllodes tumor can grow very big, and has a very high recurrent rate.

About a month ago, I felt the lump.

It was a very hard lump.

I knew immediately that this was a hard solid mass, unlikely to be a normal cyst.

When I went for my first consultation with the general practitioner, she estimated the lump size as 6 cm.

She was puzzled as to why I discovered it so late.  I was very puzzled too.

It seemed impossible to have something growing in the breast, and I got to know about it when it was so huge.

At the first consultation with the specialist in the hospital, the specialist implied that I was not very alert to the growth.

That may be true, but with hindsight, it is impossible to uncover phyllodes tumor at early stage.

The specialist arranged for a breast ultrasound.

After a breast ultrasound that comes back with inconclusive result, the doctor recommends a breast biopsy.

The only confirmed fact is that this lump is a hard solid mass.

After the inconclusive result, a trucut needle breast biopsy was done.

That was the time when the specialist doctor knew just how hard this lump was.

The trucut needle breast biopsy was supposed to make three passes to collect enough samples for analysis.

I ended up with six passes.

The specialist doctor had a hard time poking the needle into the lump.  The lump was so hard that the needle could not go through.

The result of the trucut needle breast biopsy diagnoses it as cellular fibro epithelial proliferation, cannot exclude phyllodes tumor.

There is very limited information about phyllodes tumor available in the Web.

The only information that all articles about phyllodes tumor agree is:

1.  This is a fast growing mass.  It can grow to a big size in a matter of weeks.

2.  This is a tumor of an adult woman, more commonly in women from age 40 to 50.

3.  This is a very rare occurrence, less than 1% of all breast lumps.

4.  This lump grows in the connective tissue of the breast.

5.  If a single cell is left behind, the phyllodes tumor will grow.  That is why surgical removal is needed, not just to remove the lump, but all surrounding tissues.

6.  Phyllodes tumor is unlikely to be cancerous.  If it is cancerous, the cancer cells do not respond well to chemotherapy, hormone therapy or radiotherapy.

Well, I certainly do not like the idea of having a surgery every year to remove the lump.  It sounds so awful.

The problem is that phyllodes tumor is so rare that nobody really knows the causes of it.

Nobody can really pinpoint the risk factors, other than citing family history as one of the main factors.

Hopefully this is the first and only time for me!

I certainly do not welcome a recurrence.  Hopefully the coming surgery will remove every single cell.

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Ben Bernanke sends gold and silver prices soaring

Hard to imagine that a single man can affect the gold and silver prices per ounce so much.

However, the truth is that Ben Bernanke has sent the gold and silver prices per ounce to a new high.

What did he do?

Actually he did nothing much except saying a few words.

His remarks and hints about further stimulus is enough to sink the Dollar and soar the gold and silver prices per ounce.

Why is that so?

Further stimulus means devaluing the Dollar by having more money floating around.

Since gold and silver prices per ounce are in inverse direction to the value of the Dollar, the price will soar.

Even people without knowledge of finance knows that a devalued currency is not good for them.

In order to retain the value of their money, they would buy gold and silver to prevent further erosion of their money.

The fact that a single remark by Ben Bernanke is enough to affect the commodity market means that the investors are extremely fearful.

They react very fast to bad news.

Once the Fed announces the stimulus, the gold and silver prices per ounce will reach the sky.

That is the time when the common people react by snapping up physical gold and silver.

It seems that the underlying factors supporting the precious metals will not go away in the future.

The debt problem of Greece and Italy will take years to go away.

Even if they can reach a settlement, that is just the beginning of debt management.

The sovereign debt problem of United States is even worse.

It seems that US will take a few hundred years just to pay off the debt.

The interest that the US is going to pay the holders of the Treasury bonds is enough to keep the tax rate high.

It seems that US will keep on printing money until the value of US government bonds is next to nothing.

That means the gold and silver prices per ounce will continue to go up.

The days of $4 per ounce of silver are long gone.

Not many people can remember that gold price per ounce was about $37 in 1970.  They might not even remember that they could have bought gold for $273 in 2000.

Just a difference of 11 years, and gold price has increased nearly 6 times.

Those old, good days are over.

The question is: how high will the gold and silver prices per ounce go?

It seems that the sky the limit.
We might not even have the ability to buy silver in another ten years’ time.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Before you buy physical gold for investment

Buy physical gold for investment is the traditional way of investing in gold.

Even people who cannot read and write know that you can buy physical gold, hold it for a long time, and sell when the gold price is high.

After all, there is just one price for gold, regardless of where you live.

Before you buy physical gold, you need to know the difference between buying physical gold bars and buying gold accessories.

Gold accessories are not good for investment.

You need to pay a very high premium over spot rate.

The reason is that you have to pay the craftsman for making the gold accessories.

Another factor is that gold ring, gold necklace are not pure gold.

Pure gold is very soft.

If you drop a pure gold coin, the coin will dent.

You no longer have a perfectly round gold coin.

As such, pure gold to make ring and necklace is not possible.  Most jewelries mix gold with other hard metals for strengthening the jewelries.

While there are occasions that call for gold jewelries, such as wedding.  However, for investment purpose, you should buy physical gold in the form of gold bullion coins and gold bars.

If you have enough money to buy physical gold, it is best to buy 1 oz gold bar, rather than 1 oz gold bullion coin.

1 Oz Pamp Suisse Gold Bar is a premium gold bar.

You can buy it online through authorized agents or through your local goldsmith.

Gold bar has a lower premium than gold bullion coin.

That means you are likely to pay lower price for 1 oz Pamp Suisse Gold bar than one gold bullion coin.

While most people worry about storage after you buy physical gold, the fact is that most of us do not have so much money to buy a few ounces of gold bars.

It takes more than a thousand dollars just to get a single 1 oz Pamp Suisse Gold bar.

It is so small that you can slip into your sport shoes, and none be wiser.

A very important factor before you buy physical gold for investment is the volatility of the commodity.

Gold price fluctuates.

You need to monitor the price for a while before you commit to the purchase.

As of today, the current gold price is US$1551.

The average gold price for the year 2011 is US$1448.79.

The price of gold surges when something bad happens, and the investors sell off in stock market and buy commodity.

When the investors feel positive about the economy, they will sell off gold, and return to the stock market.
That is why the gold price fluctuates wildly.

Buy physical gold for investment never goes out of fashion, but the price fluctuates wildly.

If you happen to buy at a high price, it will take many years for the price to recover enough for you to break even.

Sunday, July 3, 2011

Hope Gold Price Per Troy Ounce Continues to fall

Finally, gold price per troy ounce falls below $1,500.

The closing gold price per troy ounce on Friday was $1,483.

For the past two months, gold has stayed above $1,500 most of the times.

It is a very, very high price.

What causes the fall?

For one thing, the Greece situation has stabilized.

Since gold is a commodity deemed as safe haven, the minute investors start to relax, the demand falls.

The fall in oil price is also a factor.

When the price of oil spirals upward, the trend is that gold price per Troy ounce spirals in the same direction.  Both oil and gold belong to the commodity market.

Since oil price falls, gold and silver prices fall as well.

The third factor is the rise in USD.

Investors buy gold as a hedge against the declining value of USD.  Once the USD gains momentum, there is no need to continue buying gold.

How low will gold price per Troy ounce go?

Nobody knows.

A crisis anywhere around the world would cause gold to shine again.

With the current uncertainty round the world, it is a matter of time before the next crisis erupt.

The best is to buy gold, especially gold bars and gold coins, when the price falls below the average for the year.

The average gold price per Troy ounce for the current year is $1,445.

If gold falls below this level, it is a good buy.

The best is to fall below $1,400.

It will take a lot of confidence in the investors to cause a major gold crash.

If gold falls below $1,200, that means something good is happening in the economy.

When the investors see the economy picks up, especially the economy in US, they will sell gold and silver to buy stocks and real estate.

This can happen when the US reports unexpectedly low unemployment, and millions of jobs created in the economy.

So far, the reports are not that optimistic.

For the immediate term, gold and silver price per troy ounce may fall further.

However, in the longer term, gold and silver will rise higher.

The inflation rate is still high. Many people are still unemployed.

While China faces the risk of hyperinflation, the US faces the risk of uncontrollable debt.

The macro economic factors will push the price of gold and silver to new high.

Saturday, July 2, 2011

Genting premium program

I just returned from a trip to Genting Highlands.

This trip is most memorable for a reason.

This is the first time I traveled to Genting Highlands by booking through Genting Premium Program.

Genting Premium Program of RM3000 means that I have to commit RM3000 in non-negotiable credits, either for chips or slots.

Genting Premium Program comes with 2 free nights of hotel room and 4 buffet meals.

I chose the slot credits.  I chose to stay in Resort Hotel and enjoyed four meals in Coffee Terrace.

I estimated that I would get back RM2700 based on a payback percentage of 90%.

I was just willing to pay RM300 for all the freebies.

The price for a Deluxe Room in Resort Hotel is RM270 per night for low season through online booking.

Even with a 25% for Silver card holder, I would have to fork out RM405 if I were to pay by cash.

The buffet dinner at Coffee Terrace cost RM61++, closer to RM70.

That means I would have to pay RM280 for 4 buffet dinners there.

The total value of the free two nights stay and 4 buffet dinners cost about RM685.

It is a great deal to fork out RM300 for the value of RM685.

After rolling through the RM3000 credits, I withdrew the cash and bought RM200 Go Genting Package every day.

This RM200 Go Genting Package comes with one free set meal voucher and 2 Genting Point (GP).

Since I traveled to Genting by coach, I could make use of the Go Genting Coach Promotion to redeem cash from existing GP.

I had enough GP to redeem for RM160 only.

The end result was that I cashed out RM2900, losing only RM100.

That is even better than my expectation.

I will definitely make use of Genting Premium Program for further trip.

Having said that, I admit that this package is not for everyone.

Those who cannot control themselves will use up all the cash.

For persons like me, who enjoyed nature and the great outdoors, this Genting package is a great deal.

I spent about an hour rolling through all the non-negotiable credits, and spent the rest of the time outdoor.

The day trip to Awana took up most of the second day.

UPDATE as of 11 July:  Just heard from Genting that they are reducing the free buffet meals to just two meals.
Even with the reduction of two buffet meals, this Genting Premium Program is still a good deal.  Hope it does not suffer further reduction of freebies.